Campaigners say the poor state of the UK’s farm soil could make food more expensive for families in the years ahead.
The group Save Soil estimates that a typical household could end up paying hundreds of pounds extra each year. Their argument is simple: healthy soil holds water and stays stable, so crops survive droughts and floods better. Damaged soil recovers slowly, so when bad weather hits, more of the harvest is lost and prices jump around more.
The people hit hardest would be low-income families, since they spend a bigger share of their money on food. Everyday staples like potatoes, bread and vegetables are the most exposed.
Praveena Sridhar, a senior figure at Save Soil, put it this way: food prices are shaped by energy, labour and global markets, but the condition of the soil decides how badly each shock lands. Good soil keeps yields steady, which keeps prices steady.
Weather is part of the worry too. The Met Office recently said the El Niño pattern could bring milder, wetter and windier weather to the UK in autumn and early winter. (El Niño is a warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equator that shifts weather worldwide. It happens every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to twelve months.) There’s also speculation that 2027 could be the hottest year on record, which would add more pressure on the food the UK imports.
Save Soil wants three things: a legally binding target for soil health, a national system to monitor soil, and funding to train and advise farmers.
For now, food inflation is actually easing. Official figures last week showed overall inflation held at 2.8% in May, with food and drink inflation slowing to 2.2% — its lowest since December 2024.
The government says it’s acting to keep shopping costs down: investing billions in new farming technology and climate-resilient crops, building the first new reservoirs in 30 years, and launching a 25-year farming plan with specific steps to improve soil health.